November 2009 Archives

During the 1970s, I conducted an (unpublished) meta-analysis of data Charles Greeley Abbot collected from various sources in the early 20th Century to look for cross correlations between his solar irradiance measurements, sunspot index measurements, and weather patterns in various cities. The meta-analysis showed a significant positive correlation between solar irradiance and sunspot data, and a partial correlation between them and the temperature data.

Abbot, like nearly all astronomers and astrophysicists of his time, firmly believed in a negative correlation between sunspot index and solar irradiance, rather than the positive one his data showed. He noted the partial correlation between sunspot index and temperatures, but his prejudice about the correlation between index and irradiance led him to reject the effect as spurious.

By the end of the 1980s, the positive correlation between solar irradiance variations and sunspot index variations had been confirmed by satellite measurements, overturning astrophysicists' previous view. This allowed partial explanation of historically observed climatic variations, specifically the so-called "Little Ice Age" in the latter half of the second millennium, by reduction of solar activity observed through anomalies in the sunspot index, specifically the Sporer, Maunder, and Dalton minima. This research strongly indicates that solar variability is also an important input to the climate system that is certainly not under human control.

Now, it is becoming clear that the climate system is highly complex, with multiple positive and negative feedback loops, as well as a large number of independent forcing inputs, only a few of which are under human control (see "Aerosols Cloud Climate Picture," Science News, v. 176, n. 11., pp. 5-6 for a brief synopsis). These are characteristics of a chaotic system

Paleontologists and geologists have pieced together a fairly complete, though not necessarily detailed, picture of Earth's climate over the 4.5 billion years of the planet's existence. This picture shows a chaotic climate capable of varying over a wide temperature range. On short time scales, weather patterns are now acknowledged to be chaotic, with a horizon of predictability on the order of a week.

Taken together, these bits of information lead one to the conclusion that Earth's climate exhibits chaotic behavior on all time scales. It is, basically, a chaotic system.

Now, let's look at efforts to control climate change. We are attempting to use a chaotic system (global politics) to harness a second chaotic system (social, economic, and technical institutions) to control a third chaotic system (Earth's climate), when not all the forcing variables (e.g., solar irradiance, geology) are in our hands, anyway.

This sounds like a fool's errand.

I suggest that we could much more effectively apply our energies to developing means to react to climate change that is inevitable, than to the fool's errand of trying to direct it. Climate change, in any direction, has both positive and negative affects. It would be far better to direct our efforts toward engineering social systems, laws, and technologies to take advantage of the positive effects, and ameliorate the negative effects.

Another one bites the dust! Today's issue of Scientific Computing Newswire broke the news that an international team of scientists has finally mapped the genome of the domestic pig. While thousands of fans of both genome mapping and domestic pigs have been waiting with 'bated (and some with baited) breath for this momentous breakthrough, some readers of this blog might greet this news with a resounding "Ho-hum."

Why would anyone have any interest in a map of Porky's genome, or, for that matter, that of any of the roughly two dozen mammalian species whose genomes have been mapped in addition to people?

There are actually a number of good reasons. The excuse given in the article for picking on the poor pig is that medical researchers use domestic pigs as analogs for humans when studying a number of diseases. "The pig is the ideal animal to look at lifestyle and health issues in the United States," said Larry Schook, a University of Illinois in Champaign biomedical science professor who led the DNA sequencing project. The Scientific Computing article says that scientists rely on pigs to study everything from obesity and heart disease to skin disorders.

Of course, the author also gave a nod to the mass-media H1N1 frenzy by speculating that it might help veterinarians come up with a vaccine to keep Porky from getting swine flu. You wouldn't want your favorite pig coming down with swine flu, now would you? It's bad enough that your parakeet died of avian flu, after your local river suffered a bout of west nile virus. These pandemics can be such a pain in the butt!

Anyway, the real reason we applaud mapping of Porky's genome is that the more we know about the genetic makeups of different species, the better we understand life science in general. Genomics has revolutionized a vast array of disciplines, from anthropology to zoology. Like all pure science endeavors, genomics provides insights that improve our understanding of issues far beyond what might be anticipated. Unlike many pure sciences, however, genomics results have often found immediate applications. Within months of cracking the human genetic code, for example, researchers had developed biochips capable of inexpensively screening for an array of genetic disorders.

So, while it's easy to make fun of mapping the domestic pig's genome, it really is research that we should applaud, and, more importantly, support unstintingly. Not only will your pet pig thank you, but future generations of humans, who achieve better health at lower cost will thank you as well.